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Geospatial Analysis of Terrorist Activities (GATA)

 

Other American Terrorism Study areas:

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This project expanded data collection from a previous project funded by NIJ and examined the temporal and spatial patterns of environmental and international terrorists using a larger sample. Findings from the American Terrorism Study previously revealed that, unlike traditional criminality, terrorists are much less spontaneous, engage in substantial planning activities, and commit ancillary and preparatory crimes in advance of a terrorist incident.

An initial geospatial analysis had revealed that geospatial and temporal patterns of preparatory conduct vary by group type. These patterns were most noticeable among international and environmental terrorists. Building on these findings, the goal of the current project was to confirm whether these patterns were merely an artifact of small sample sizes and whether additional data would clarify patterns of behavior associated with these two types of terrorist groups. To accomplish this goal, subject matter experts were selected to identify additional international and environmental terrorist groups/incidents that operated or occurred within the United States. Fifty-eight case studies were selected for analysis. These fifty-eight rendered information on some 173 terrorist incidents. Complete temporal data, however, was available on only 39 of these incidents. Geospatial analysis was conducted on all of the incidents, while temporal analysis was limited to the 39 incidents (international, 10; and environmental, 29) where adequate temporal data was available. Data was recorded on some 1,430 terrorists’ residences, planning locations, preparatory activities, and target locations.

The spatial analysis confirmed that many terrorists lived relatively close to the incident target. Slightly over one-half of the terrorists resided within 30 miles of the target location. In contrast, about one-fourth of the terrorists lived over 800 miles from the target. Furthermore, approximately one-half of the terrorists engaged in their planning and preparatory activities within 30 miles of their residences. Finally, over 60 per cent of preparatory behaviors took place within 30 miles of the eventual target of the terrorist incident. Remarkably, these patterns were identical for both environmental and international terrorists.

Although the spatial patterns of international and environmental terrorists were similar, their temporal patterns were dramatically different. Environmental terrorists were much more spontaneous than international terrorists, committing fewer preparatory behaviors over a much shorter planning cycle. Approximately 85% of the planning and preparatory behaviors of environmental terrorists occurred within six days of the terrorist incident. In contrast, international terrorists engaged in substantially more planning and preparatory activities over a typical three to six-month planning cycle. The implications for local law enforcement are extremely important. While terrorists may think globally, they act locally. Both preventative efforts and post-incident investigations should focus upon local events and persons as the primary source of information about terrorist activities.

GATA data entry screen used to enter information about events:

GATA data entry screen