Project Summary

The tribes of Germania controlled the region north of the Danube and east of the Rhine rivers during the era of the Roman Empire from first century BC to the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in the fifth century AD. These tribes are documented by contemporary Roman authors and archaeologically as mobile in two periods – the first century BC and fourth century AD. The 1^st Century BC is a period of expansion and population growth where the tribes settle in new regions. Paleoclimate records show the decadal patterns of the fourth century AD to consist of a series of very severe drought years. Preliminary research suggests that the 4^th century drought affected much of Asia. This possible climate may have occurred at the same time that major migrations begin, large-scale combat with the Romans occurs, religious beliefs change, and European peoples begin to amalgamate throughout Europe and portions of Asia.

These migrations, or Völkerwanderung, are hypothesized to be a catalyst for the fall of the Roman Empire, and the subsequent occupation by these tribes was a factor for the development of the feudal structure of European society throughout the medieval period. Dendrochronology and dendroclimatology will be used to analyze the year-to-year climate changes through standardized tree-ring studies and other climatological proxies such as palynology, ice cores, and lake varves. One of the principal goals of the project is to reconstruct the climate of the 200s and 300s AD on annual and seasonal bases. In order to evaluate this drought on the macro scale, a second, lower resolution chronology will be constructed for the period 100 BC to AD 600. These data will be used to test the hypothesis that extreme climate occurred simultaneously with tribal migrations. Until recently, the data have not been available to successfully calculate yearly climate change and their possible link to historical events during the 3^rd and 4^th centuries.

The reconstruction will be based upon climate signals in tree-rings. Through use of ring density and latewood measurements, the seasonal variations can be extrapolated. The strategy to compensate for inherent problems in tree ring interpretation will be the use of several climate proxies to support the regional tree-ring chronologies. Among the already acquired data sets are palynology, lake levels, and glaciology for all of Europe and Asia. Among the data sets still to be acquired are Greenland ice core data, atmospheric polar oscillation studies and river discharges. The format of the study will use these data sets in modern climate constructions to test the hypothesis based upon the paleoclimate reconstruction. The project focuses on the application of reconstructed climate to social changes (farming techniques, religious structure) and migrations of the tribes of Europe and Asia that occur in the 3^rd and 4^th centuries AD through examining the primary source literature for climate indicators and evidence of social change.

            Germanic migrations, potentially climate driven, are linked to one of the essential events of the formation of Western Society. This study also exemplifies the use of climate reconstruction with anthropogenic application. The Germanic tribes have been stereotyped as homogenous, violent people, where the identity may be one of various tribes responding on the tribe-by-tribe basis to a climate anomalies. Ethnographic studies of the primary historic data reveal that these tribes were diverse and widespread – in no way homogenous. The question of the motivation of the tribes has been raised many times, however, until the climate data is evaluated properly, then the question cannot be answered. This project will evaluate the climate-based migration theory of the first centuries AD and possible identification of a major climate change that covered large portions of Europe and Northern Asia for decades in humanity’s recent history.