CONTENT ANALYSIS – CODING SYSTEM

            Agricultural Records was examined over a 1,500 year period from AD 220 to 1720 in its entirety (every year was quantified giving a margin of error of 0%).  The reasoning for stopping in 1720 is that the information becomes much more detailed and meteorological data begin to be regularly recorded, which is not the emphasis of this study.  This study is interested in the periods before meteorological data.  The coding system of this 1500-year period was divided into three principle categories – Weather/Climate, Agriculture, and Human.  Human category was broken into three subcategories of drought, famine and plague.  The Agriculture category was subdivided into five categories of good and bad harvests, good and bad livestock, and commodity prices or listings.  And the Weather/ climate category was subdivided into rain recorded, cool, cloudy, mild - warm, dry, hot, frozen rivers, cold – frost, wet – rainy, storm – windy, and flood - tide.  These three main categories with their subcategories covered all references to climate, agriculture, or human ailments.  The only recorded terminology in the records that does not fall into the coding scheme is the occurrences of historical markers such as books published, historical events, or discoveries.  These items were discarded as irrelevant to the study at hand.  Every other record was quantified inside the parameters of the coding scheme.

Definitions of the Coding Scheme

I.                   Climate References

A.     Rain Recorded is the term reserved for meteorologically recorded rainfall amounts given in any sort of tangible increments.  Rainfall records are of the earliest meteorologically recorded data starting in 1677 in England.

B.     Cool category is any reference to cool summers or cold winters.

C.     Clouds is, as the category suggests, a cloudy period or dark time due to cloud cover, not storms or rain.

D.     Mild – Warm is any reference to mild or warm summers (not hot) or winters.

E.     Dry is reserved for periods that are dry by name or times explained that have little to no rain.

F.     Hot is a reference to high summer temperatures or higher than normal winters. 

G.    Frozen Rivers is a specialized category for the recording of cold period where a major river froze to a significant degree as to denote recording.  A frozen river is not recorded in the “cold” category unless the description makes reference to an extended period of time.  The length of the freezing is unimportant in the content analysis, just the mention of each river.  If several rivers are mentioned then they are all quantified.

H.    Cold – Frost – Snow is the category reserved for winter climates.  Cold periods, late or hard frosts, or periods of heavy snow.  Seasonally cold temperatures and snowstorms or blizzards would classify as being in this category.

I.       Wet – Rain category is for periods that are wetter than normal due to rain or dampness.  Any non-storm even that is recorded is considered rain.  Wet and damp periods are covered under the same category as long as there is no flooding, which belongs in a different category.

J.      Storm classification requires the word storm by name.  “There were heavy storms” or “it was a period of great storms” are included but mention of snowstorms and the like are categorized in a different column.

K.     Flood – Tide is a column reserved for natural phenomenon including gales and hurricanes.

II.               Human References

A.                Plague is reserved for the mention of disease or plague that effects human beings.  Such occurrences are under the name of Black Death or Sweating Sickness or the like.

B.                 Drought is used for times of dry periods that are recorded as effecting the harvest directly or referred to by name.  It is a period that causes hardship to humans.

C.                 Famine is a time of scarcity or lack of food for humans or the loss of complete crops to the point of malnutrition.

III.            Agriculture References

A.                Good Harvest is the reference reserved for times of abundant to average output.  Both good and bad harvest can be quantified for the same year if there is record of a crop doing well and a crop doing poorly.

B.                 Bad Harvest is used for a crop that has under performed the intentions of the harvester.  This may be accounted to the lack of adequate weather conditions or a wet year, but the end result is a poor harvest.

C.                 Good Livestock is a favorable standing among herds or a noted increase in population among livestock.

D.                Bad livestock is a listing that includes a drop in population among grazing animals or a subsequent disease that lowers population.

E.                 Commodity Listed is an open term for the purpose of quantifying any commodity or trade value of any agriculture or livestock product.  The listing is for the purpose of understanding the number of times that a commodity is listed.  For example, the period covered by the content analysis of Agricultural Records reveals a shifts from wool-based to wheat-based economy, however, the prices are not always recorded, but are still important to the economic system of the time.

            Over the 1500 years of the content analysis, almost half (738) of the years have no record of significant climatic occurrences.  The reason for missing data is unknown – most of which is in the early years of this record (before AD 1000).  The assumption cannot be made that these years were favorable and did not merit recording.  It is just as likely that there are no surviving records or there were never any records for many of these earlier years.  The purpose of a content analysis is to concentrate on the recorded events and not to infer the non-recorded data (Reinard, 1998, George, 1954) .

If we concentrate solely on the numbers (Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1), the item covered to the greatest extent is Commodity Listed at 25.13%, which is an understandable result corresponding with the purpose of the book’s composition, lists of agricultural data.  Following commodity listed are items directly connected to negative climatic effects on harvests such as: cold, frosts, and hard winters.  The next in the series are in order: wet – rainy periods, storms, floods, drought and then famine.  It is interesting to note that these are all “negative” categories – ones that effect either agriculture or humans directly.  Conversely, the “positive” categories such as cool or mild weather is rarely mentioned throughout the entire 1500 years – only being mentioned a combined 32 times. 

            Examining the actual harvest/ livestock reports over the entire period, the harvest reports are relatively balanced between good and bad reports.  There is a slight difference with livestock reports which are heavily slanted to the negative.  In the years that contain climate or agricultural records, harvest and livestock reports seem to be recorded consistently, whether they are good or bad.  This gives the document an underlying purpose of existence and makes the climate references even more interesting.  Nevertheless, the true interest of this study is not focused on the totals of the entire period, but how they have changed over the 1500-year period.

            This content analysis’s value is limited if only the totals of the entire period are examined.  English social history from AD 220 to 1720 varies tremendously, as do the records of climate and agricultural change.  The idea of content analysis is to examine what the writers of past climates decided to record and the mentality/ priority of the record keepers surely would change over time.  This analysis has been divided at five periods: AD 220, 1270, 1599, 1676, 1697, and 1720.