THE DROUGHTS OF THE 3^rd and 4^th CENTURIES AD

            As the climate changes become better understood throughout history, “the historian will catch a glimpse of the side scenes on the stage of cultural history” (Salvesen, 1992) .  There are climate changes in the 3^rd and 4^th centuries AD as evident by the tree ring chronologies of the area.  What makes these ancient events relevant to modern times is that they document both the vulnerability and resilience of large, complex civilizations under conditions of environmental variability (deMenocal, 2001) .  Climate change has long been recognized as one of the factors that demand consideration in evaluating Germanic migrations and it seems that the drier periods in the 3^rd and 4^th centuries AD may have been enough to affect the Germanic tribes (Wigley et al., 1981) .  The Roman Empire and the transition from the old to the new has taken most of the focus of this period, while at the same time, a significant climate change on the northern slopes of the Alps, may have been confounding the situation of the Empire in ways that do not become apparent until the 4^th and 5^th centuries.

            Although it is difficult to always determine the climatic effects on agricultural and non-agricultural plants accurately, there are many cases in which climate change has been identified as a significant factor (Wigley et al., 1981) .  There have been correlations made between climate change and the decline of the Akkadian Culture in the Middle East (2170 BC) (deMenocal, 2001) .  Lake sediments have revealed climate proxies that suggest the Mayans moved away from arid conditions in central Yucatan from AD 800 –1000, and the Tiwanaku Cultures of Lake Titicaca were similarly affected in AD 1000 (deMenocal, 2001) .  The Anasazi Indians of the Great Pueblo region were driven from their homes due to several prolonged droughts culminating in AD 1280 (Slatter, 1979) .  Jamestown and the Lost Colonies were ill-fated due to the colonial attempts to settle during severe droughts in AD 1587-9 and 1606-12 (Stahle et al., 1998) .  In modern Germany, a significant drought occurred in 1976 that also impacted the Netherlands and the Alps and is revealed in the tree ring record (Flohn and Fantechi, 1984) .

            There has been an increase in the study of civilizations impacted by climate change.  This is due in part because of interest in Global Climate Change and largely in part because of the improvements in the techniques of paleoclimatological investigation.  This study has addressed the climate change in the 3^rd and 4^th centuries AD that was recorded in the annual growth rate of trees and the agricultural crops that are evident in the palynological spectra.  It is now necessary to address the Germanic tribes and their relationship to the soil and each other.