FILTERING THE HISTORIC EVENTS OF THE 3^RD AND 4^TH CENTURIES AD

            The historical events of the 3^rd and 4^th century AD in Europe are not continuous throughout the period.  There are many gaps in the historical documentation.  The records do however yield enough historical information for a fluid story of human events, to be constructed.  The primary difficulty in studying the Germanic tribes is that they did not keep their own records.  Almost all of the information is extracted from English translations of the surviving primary source documentation written in the Roman Empire.  The inherent problem with using the documentation is that the Romans considered themselves superior to the Germans and were continuous enemies of most of the Germanic tribes (Caesar, Gallic War; Salvian, On the Government of God).  This relationship leads to a strong possibility of bias in the writings of the early chroniclers.  This potential bias forces generalizations in the detail of study of the structure and organization of the Germanic tribes.

            There are four steps in focusing this study on pertinent historical occurrences.  First, it is essential to establish a connection between the Germanic tribes and agriculture.  If the tribes’ civilization can be reconstructed to the point of understanding the role of agriculture, then tree ring and climate proxy studies will not be as important when reflecting the productivity of the crops.  Second, there is a need to identify those Germanic responses that are indicative of possible climate change such as undernutrition, agricultural change, conflict or migration.  Thirdly, it is essential to determine if the Germanic tribes are a people who are constantly on the move or settle in areas for extended periods.  If the tribes did settle, then their movements could also be indicative of a change in the life of the tribes, especially if these occurrences are associated with climate changes.  Fourthly, it is necessary to determine if, when they did move, they migrate and attack as a large homogenous group or in small raiding parties.  If the tribes attack predominantly as raiding parties, then the aggressive relocation of the whole group would be an indicator of something unusual.