THESIS JUSTIFICATION

Climate, or the long-term average of weather conditions of an area, affects all terrestrial forms of life on the earth.  With the settling of Homo sapiens through the utilization of agriculture, or improved horticulture, about 10,000 years ago, humans have shown to be very sensitive to extreme or prolonged climate changes.  Climate has influenced human habitation since its inception.  In fact, climate has affected human livelihoods for many more years than human ingenuity has been able to compensate for even minor changes in climate.  Changing climate has probably driven and influenced major migrations of humans for millennia.  The difficulty is proving that these changes forced a response.

The reluctance of accepting climate as a significant influence in human migration is that most people tend to look at the role of climate change as a significant driving factor in human survival from the wrong perspective.  Humans root their perspectives in the immediate past and apply them to human history (Bloch and Putnam, 1953) .  The advancement in knowledge and technology that has allowed humans to irrigate deserts, control indoor temperature, and to create drought resistant cultivars has tainted their perspectives.  This view removes the historical perspective.  It is presumptuous to conclude that ancient peoples behaved in a similar fashion to modern individuals or society under similar climate conditions.  Without proper historical perspective, interpretation of past events can become slanted or inaccurate because these events are filtered through a modern psyche.  If climate shifts from cool and wet to hot and dry in a developed nation, the populace can easily irrigate, use their air conditioners, and plant different crops that do not need much moisture to grow.  Despite technological advancement, many modern developing countries have difficulty in compensating for climate shifts, although climate change is not nearly as consequential in modern human society as it would have been in ancient times.

The only justification for removing climate from the discourse is that there are rarely data available to portray past climates beyond meteorological data, which was true until paleoclimatology and climate proxy indicators began to allow the reconstruction of previous climate conditions.  Unfortunately, modern logic seems to be that if major climate shifts of the last two hundred years have not affected humanity that greatly, then why would it affect civilizations two thousand years ago?  Or more accurately, the ideas of climate change affecting an ancient culture seem to raise questions like: why would they not just build an irrigation ditch? or why would they not just switch to a more drought resistant food staple? or why did they not just move over the mountain range to a better climate and a more fertile area?  The point is that irrigation may have been unknown to them, that their staple may have been culturally tied, or that they did not fully comprehend the geographical biomes and climate of their immediate area (let alone their world).

Another reason that an historical approach can become slanted or even inaccurate has to do with traditional history (Novick, 1988) .  When information necessary to correctly assess the period is not available, it is common for the storyteller to make assumptions and inferences based on the information that has been found.  Over time, these ideas may become “fact” based on traditional history (Novick, 1988) .  For example, the popular belief that Abraham Lincoln’s childhood was spent reading by candlelight in a log cabin is not factual.  He actually spent his formative years in a large house in the city and not a log cabin (Loewen, 1995) .  This idea of popular traditional history usually allows for an easier telling or romanticizing of the period.

Take another example of Betsy Ross, almost every American grade school child can tell the story of George Washington getting her to make the first American flag.  Nice story, but it probably never happened (Loewen, 1995) .  There is not a shred of historical evidence that this event occurred, but every year it is taught as fact.  Tales about Betsy Ross and the first American flag seem to stir up feelings of patriotism even though they are likely untrue.

The Germanic tribes are regarded as barbarians, uncivilized hordes, and the destroyers of the greatest empire that existed in the ancient world.  The very sound of the word “barbarian” brings images of men with large weapons destroying civilized people.  Some early studies about the origin suggests that the term “barbarian”, when referring to the Germanic tribes, may actually have come from the term “barbaicarius” meaning goldsmith or gold weaver, because the early tribes were very skilled artisans.  This was shortened to “barbaus” in the 4th century AD to mean German or northern foreigner (Musset, 1975) .  Eventually the term developed to “barbarian” and carried the connotation of evil.  These barbarians seem to be only remembered by their atrocities recorded by the Romans.  Most of the negative information on these “barbarians” is what is remembered and applied to the term.  They have been remembered as the uncivilized tribes that destroyed the civilized and promoted the decline of the Western Roman Empire.

It is the craft of the historian to utilize as many resources as possible and retell the story as accurately as possible (Novick, 1988) .  Ideally, there would be unbiased documents that tell the story from several different perspectives that would give the historian a more complete picture of the events (Bloch and Putnam, 1953) .  This rarely happens even in modern history and is even more problematic as we move backward in time.  Attempts to reconstruct the Germanic tribes on an individual tribe-by-tribe basis have always fallen short of the goal due to the lack of documentation.

Therefore, the task of the historian is to approach each topic with the understanding that not all pertinent information may be known, or even worse, it may be inaccurate (Bloch and Putnam, 1953) .  Further, the historian needs to realize that modern perspectives are different from perspectives of other times and assigning reaction or “rational cognizance” to a different age and culture risks error (Novick, 1988) .  It should also be understood that the historian’s opinion is only as valid as their resources (Bloch and Putnam, 1953) . 

Hypotheses of the role of climate change and the migration of the Germanic tribes has been evaluated for years; in fact, the idea of climate related migration had been posed about one hundred years ago (Huntington, 1907) .  So, why approach the issue again?  Ellsworth Huntington suggested that a climate shift during the early stages of the Völkerwanderung, or migrations of the Germanic tribes, would be compatible with the behavioral change of the Germanic tribes, but he did so with no empirical data.  However, the empirical data currently exists that suggest that climate could have been a factor in the migrations of the Germanic tribes. 

There are several obstacles to overcome when studying the histories of the Germanic tribes.  Firstly, the available documentation comes mainly from written Roman sources.  This is problematic because there is an inherent cultural bias with using the Roman documents.  The Romans are predominantly the enemies of the Germanic tribes.  Further, the Romans also considered the tribes as inferior beings.  This leaves the historian the task of assessing this bias of relevance and accuracy. 

Secondly, it is difficult to fully comprehend the individual or collective perceptions of the Romans even though they possess most of the documentation.  Trying to appreciate their perceptions of their enemies, the Germanic tribes, is not feasible.  Reconstructing the values of the Germanic tribes through Roman documentation is daunting.  Interpreting perception of a people, with little to no documentation, is all but impossible.  At best, one can only suggest a plausible explanation and, reassess some that are currently accepted. 

Thirdly, the science of dendroclimatology can accurately reveal ancient climatic conditions and allow annual resolution reconstruction of climate in areas where trees develop a seasonal ring structure.  These data were not available to the historians who have approached this question previously, from the likes of Henry Bradley (1889) to present.  It is noteworthy that most have rejected the possibility of climate-initiated migration entirely.  But because there are now data that may suggest that climate may actually be an influence, it is necessary to re-evaluate the historically recorded events in Germania of the 3rd and 4th centuries AD.